
COURTESY: GOOGLE
A regular customer is always given preferential treatment
consciously or unconsciously by those he patronizes. The case of Alhaji
Abubakar Atiku as a regular customer to the INEC is a peculiar one as his name
may filter into the list of contestants in any political party by the ‘error’
of IJNEC’s technology. As for being a stable individual in political parties,
he is the most fluidly personality of all the political gladiators among
Nigerian politicians. There is hardly any major political party Atiku’s name
has not appeared in his desperate bid to fulfill a lifetime ambition of
becoming the president of Nigeria. In spite of all his political voyages, one
common factor that has remained constant in his path is that he is a serial
loser. But that is how politics plays out for some people. A resolute
politician would one day succeed if he does not give up; the case of the
incumbent Muhammadu Buhari is a point of reference. This unquenchable fervour
to become the president of Nigeria one day, may be Atiku’s catalyst. He has
registered his presence again in the general elections come 2023, by clinching
the presidential candidacy in People Democratic People (PDP).
As earlier stated, Atiku has been a serial presidential contestant
since 1993. In that year, he contested under the Social Democratic Party and
was defeated by late Moshood Kashimawo Abiola.
In 2007, he contested under the Action Congress, and again lost to the late Umaru
Musa Yar’Adua of the Peoples Democratic Party, and the incumbent President, of
the All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP), making him coming third in the polls. In 2011,
he contested with the former President Goodluck Jonathan under the Peoples
Democratic Party (PDP) and lost to him. In 2014, he joined the All Progressives
Congress (APC) preparatory to the 2015 general elections. He lost woefully to
his co-contender in the primaries, that is, the current President, Muhammadu
Buhari. In 2017, he returned to the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), and contested
against President Buhari who was vying for his second term in office. In the
characteristic result, Atiku was squarely defeated. In 2022, he again contested
in the primaries in the PDP, this time he won in the primary elections held on
the 28th of May, 2022 at the FCT, Abuja. He contended with tough opponents
like Governor Nyesom Wike, Bukola Saraki, Aminu Tambuwal. We will monitor how
he will chauffeur his political party to victory at the February, 2023 general elections. While we wish him victory
at the polls, it would interest an average observer to note that Atiku has some
hurdles to cross in his bid to become the President of this great country.
The results of the PDP primary elections speak volumes of Atiku’s
challenges. He had a tough time with Nyesom Wike, the Governor of Rivers state,
prior to the May 2022 primary elections of the PDP. In the elections, Atiku polled
371 votes out of the 767 votes to emerge the winner of the primaries. Governor Nyesom
Wike of Rivers State polled 237 votes making him the closest rival with Atiku.
Bukola Saraki, former Governor of Kwara State polled 70 votes, while Anyim Pius
Anyim polled a distant 14, with Bala Mohammed ‘going home’ with 20 votes and Udom
Emmanuel relishing his paltry 38 votes in all. From all the pre-election indications,
Wike was gravitating towards clinching the presidential ticket of the party. But
Wike would be dazed no sooner. Again, insinuations were rife that his vaunted
and offensive campaign tactics and statements made Peter Obi, a brilliant and
cool-headed aspirant under the PDP to quit the party, and took solace with the
unpopular Labour Party., one of the registered political parties in Nigeria. Peter
Obi may realise his presidential ambition here. Wike’s supercilious attitude and
boastings may have miffed the Northern political gladiators and may have branded
him as a man who will be uncontrollable and untamable by the stakeholders of
the party if he gets the ticket, therefore must be tamed by denying him the
ticket. Another factor may be that Wike may not be able to give PDP a good
representation and victory at the general polls leading to the election of the
president of the country. Most importantly, is that the North wants to retain
power by all means.
Intrigues played out like a thunderbolt from the blues, when
at the convention ground, Governor Aminu Tambuwal of Sokoto State, a vibrant contestant
announced his stepping down for Abubakar Atiku, and urged his supporters to
cast their votes, for Atiku Abubakar. This
is to say that all the votes that would have counted for him were now Atiku’s. This swelled Atiku;s numbers of votes cast for
him and raised the possibilities of his winning the primaries. This, we learnt, got Wike shocked and dazed. At
the end of the game, Atiku won the ticket. This is pure political calculations
from the Northern political gladiators and permutations. Wike, by this arrangement
was defeated. In could be read that with the close marking, wike gave Atiku a hot political chase, it would
have been difficult for Atiku to defeat Wike, but the North must cling to power
by denying Wike the opportunity to swing into victory. With this development the
political ground has become more fertile for more manipulations, especially at
the exit of Peter Obi, former Governor of Anambra state from the party. The entire
South has been castrated in the calculations of PDP in the run-up to the 2023
general elections. This is a serious matter for the party and its standard
bearer.
The political atmosphere in the South-East is presently reported
to be very unpalatable for Atiku and the {DP as the ‘cheated’ have vowed that
Atiku will never become the President of Nigeria. This decision may be hinged
on how the region has been denied the opportunity of producing a president despite its traditional allegiance and support
for the party since its formation in 1999, as evidenced in the commitment,
dedication and sincerity of Governor Wike, a die-hard supporter of PDP. As far
as the South-East is concerned now, PDP is now uncompromisingly a Northern
political party.
The South region is said not to play much significant role in
numbers when it comes to voting at elections. They are regarded as the minority
when votes are counted. The North has always arrogated to itself as the decider
of winners of elections because of their acclaimed numerical strength at elections.
This is why they don’t care a hoot whose ox is gored in their political decisions
just as demonstrated in the 2022 PDP primaries between Atiku and dazed Wike. This
has irked the South-Easterners and have vowed that Atiku will never become
president of Nigeria. While Atiku has every right to tour every part of the country
in the time of campaigns without any forms of embarrassment from any persons or
groups, the South-East can peacefully deny him votes by voting for an
alternative political party of their choice. While Atiku can canvass for votes
anywhere in Nigeria, everyone can also exercise his fundament right of freedom
of association including joining or voting for a political party of choice, and
this must be done without violating the rights of others.
Atiku Abubakar and PDP
have these hurdles to cross. They have to reconcile the aggrieved political
zone because by the calculations of INEC, a presidential candidate must win
particular percentage of votes from each State of the Federation including the
Federal Capital Territory to qualify for the president of Nigeria. So, the
threat of the South-East cannot be wished away at all. They matter a lot if
anyone is to win the presidential elections in Nigeria.
Another hurdle the PDP and Atiku have to cross is how the
Book written by former President Olushegun Obasanjo about Atiku painting him as
a demon next to Satan, and the campaign strategy Atiku has to adopt in order to
sell his candidacy to the people. Someone comically suggested that he can make
Baba Iyabo the Coordinator of his 2023 Atiku Abubakar Campaign Organization. He
may use the opportunity to interpret some of his statements in the Book so as
to clean up the hanging mess on the face of the PDP candidate till now, as
viewed by the voting public. Anyway, Nigeria is a funny country that even if
the devil contests an election he may likely win as long as he can dole out
some cash to the electorates. It may not be too wrong to state that programmed
poverty in the lives of most Nigerians has altered their objective reasoning
faculty. This poverty is a deliberate potent
weapon in the hands of Nigerian rulers and the elites against the milked,
deflated and frustrated electorates, and by extension the generality of
Nigerians.
Moreso, Atiku’s hurdle might be more compounded if he has a
virile contender from the other political parties. Atiku may suffer integrity
test. Apart from the contesting with the opposition candidate, he has to battle
with the power of incumbency from a candidate fielded by the ruling party being
the APC, which favours continuity from its candidate. Though the President of
the country has assured Nigerians a fair play in the elections to the
presidency, but as a faithful member of his party, he would want his party to
win. It won’t be out of place if he deploys all the appurtenances of his office
to ensure the victory of the ruling party.
Moreso, PDP and Atiku should not be deceived about the
independence of the Electoral Management Body, the INEC. It is a common knowledge that
the Electoral Management Body is under the presidency. Its touted independence
may unwittingly be compromised. The APC defeated a sitting president in 2015
elections, the same fate and feat may not repeat itself in 2023. It is a great
race, sharp contentions, but it must all be peaceful. The election of the APC presidential candidate
will actually kick-start the full voltage of politicking leading to the
election of the president to run the affairs of Nigeria for the next four years
come 2023. We must contest with decorum and maturity.