COURTESY: GOOGLE
A regular customer is always given preferential treatment consciously or unconsciously by those he patronizes. The case of Alhaji Abubakar Atiku as a regular customer to the INEC is a peculiar one as his name may filter into the list of contestants in any political party by the ‘error’ of IJNEC’s technology. As for being a stable individual in political parties, he is the most fluidly personality of all the political gladiators among Nigerian politicians. There is hardly any major political party Atiku’s name has not appeared in his desperate bid to fulfill a lifetime ambition of becoming the president of Nigeria. In spite of all his political voyages, one common factor that has remained constant in his path is that he is a serial loser. But that is how politics plays out for some people. A resolute politician would one day succeed if he does not give up; the case of the incumbent Muhammadu Buhari is a point of reference. This unquenchable fervour to become the president of Nigeria one day, may be Atiku’s catalyst. He has registered his presence again in the general elections come 2023, by clinching the presidential candidacy in People Democratic People (PDP).
As earlier stated, Atiku has been a serial presidential contestant since 1993. In that year, he contested under the Social Democratic Party and was defeated by late Moshood Kashimawo Abiola. In 2007, he contested under the Action Congress, and again lost to the late Umaru Musa Yar’Adua of the Peoples Democratic Party, and the incumbent President, of the All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP), making him coming third in the polls. In 2011, he contested with the former President Goodluck Jonathan under the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and lost to him. In 2014, he joined the All Progressives Congress (APC) preparatory to the 2015 general elections. He lost woefully to his co-contender in the primaries, that is, the current President, Muhammadu Buhari. In 2017, he returned to the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), and contested against President Buhari who was vying for his second term in office. In the characteristic result, Atiku was squarely defeated. In 2022, he again contested in the primaries in the PDP, this time he won in the primary elections held on the 28th of May, 2022 at the FCT, Abuja. He contended with tough opponents like Governor Nyesom Wike, Bukola Saraki, Aminu Tambuwal. We will monitor how he will chauffeur his political party to victory at the February, 2023 general elections. While we wish him victory at the polls, it would interest an average observer to note that Atiku has some hurdles to cross in his bid to become the President of this great country.
The results of the PDP primary elections speak volumes of Atiku’s challenges. He had a tough time with Nyesom Wike, the Governor of Rivers state, prior to the May 2022 primary elections of the PDP. In the elections, Atiku polled 371 votes out of the 767 votes to emerge the winner of the primaries. Governor Nyesom Wike of Rivers State polled 237 votes making him the closest rival with Atiku. Bukola Saraki, former Governor of Kwara State polled 70 votes, while Anyim Pius Anyim polled a distant 14, with Bala Mohammed ‘going home’ with 20 votes and Udom Emmanuel relishing his paltry 38 votes in all. From all the pre-election indications, Wike was gravitating towards clinching the presidential ticket of the party. But Wike would be dazed no sooner. Again, insinuations were rife that his vaunted and offensive campaign tactics and statements made Peter Obi, a brilliant and cool-headed aspirant under the PDP to quit the party, and took solace with the unpopular Labour Party., one of the registered political parties in Nigeria. Peter Obi may realise his presidential ambition here. Wike’s supercilious attitude and boastings may have miffed the Northern political gladiators and may have branded him as a man who will be uncontrollable and untamable by the stakeholders of the party if he gets the ticket, therefore must be tamed by denying him the ticket. Another factor may be that Wike may not be able to give PDP a good representation and victory at the general polls leading to the election of the president of the country. Most importantly, is that the North wants to retain power by all means.
Intrigues played out like a thunderbolt from the blues, when at the convention ground, Governor Aminu Tambuwal of Sokoto State, a vibrant contestant announced his stepping down for Abubakar Atiku, and urged his supporters to cast their votes, for Atiku Abubakar. This is to say that all the votes that would have counted for him were now Atiku’s. This swelled Atiku;s numbers of votes cast for him and raised the possibilities of his winning the primaries. This, we learnt, got Wike shocked and dazed. At the end of the game, Atiku won the ticket. This is pure political calculations from the Northern political gladiators and permutations. Wike, by this arrangement was defeated. In could be read that with the close marking, wike gave Atiku a hot political chase, it would have been difficult for Atiku to defeat Wike, but the North must cling to power by denying Wike the opportunity to swing into victory. With this development the political ground has become more fertile for more manipulations, especially at the exit of Peter Obi, former Governor of Anambra state from the party. The entire South has been castrated in the calculations of PDP in the run-up to the 2023 general elections. This is a serious matter for the party and its standard bearer.
The political atmosphere in the South-East is presently reported to be very unpalatable for Atiku and the {DP as the ‘cheated’ have vowed that Atiku will never become the President of Nigeria. This decision may be hinged on how the region has been denied the opportunity of producing a president despite its traditional allegiance and support for the party since its formation in 1999, as evidenced in the commitment, dedication and sincerity of Governor Wike, a die-hard supporter of PDP. As far as the South-East is concerned now, PDP is now uncompromisingly a Northern political party.
The South region is said not to play much significant role in numbers when it comes to voting at elections. They are regarded as the minority when votes are counted. The North has always arrogated to itself as the decider of winners of elections because of their acclaimed numerical strength at elections. This is why they don’t care a hoot whose ox is gored in their political decisions just as demonstrated in the 2022 PDP primaries between Atiku and dazed Wike. This has irked the South-Easterners and have vowed that Atiku will never become president of Nigeria. While Atiku has every right to tour every part of the country in the time of campaigns without any forms of embarrassment from any persons or groups, the South-East can peacefully deny him votes by voting for an alternative political party of their choice. While Atiku can canvass for votes anywhere in Nigeria, everyone can also exercise his fundament right of freedom of association including joining or voting for a political party of choice, and this must be done without violating the rights of others.
Atiku Abubakar and PDP have these hurdles to cross. They have to reconcile the aggrieved political zone because by the calculations of INEC, a presidential candidate must win particular percentage of votes from each State of the Federation including the Federal Capital Territory to qualify for the president of Nigeria. So, the threat of the South-East cannot be wished away at all. They matter a lot if anyone is to win the presidential elections in Nigeria.
Another hurdle the PDP and Atiku have to cross is how the Book written by former President Olushegun Obasanjo about Atiku painting him as a demon next to Satan, and the campaign strategy Atiku has to adopt in order to sell his candidacy to the people. Someone comically suggested that he can make Baba Iyabo the Coordinator of his 2023 Atiku Abubakar Campaign Organization. He may use the opportunity to interpret some of his statements in the Book so as to clean up the hanging mess on the face of the PDP candidate till now, as viewed by the voting public. Anyway, Nigeria is a funny country that even if the devil contests an election he may likely win as long as he can dole out some cash to the electorates. It may not be too wrong to state that programmed poverty in the lives of most Nigerians has altered their objective reasoning faculty. This poverty is a deliberate potent weapon in the hands of Nigerian rulers and the elites against the milked, deflated and frustrated electorates, and by extension the generality of Nigerians.
Moreso, Atiku’s hurdle might be more compounded if he has a virile contender from the other political parties. Atiku may suffer integrity test. Apart from the contesting with the opposition candidate, he has to battle with the power of incumbency from a candidate fielded by the ruling party being the APC, which favours continuity from its candidate. Though the President of the country has assured Nigerians a fair play in the elections to the presidency, but as a faithful member of his party, he would want his party to win. It won’t be out of place if he deploys all the appurtenances of his office to ensure the victory of the ruling party.
Moreso, PDP and Atiku should not be deceived about the independence of the Electoral Management Body, the INEC. It is a common knowledge that the Electoral Management Body is under the presidency. Its touted independence may unwittingly be compromised. The APC defeated a sitting president in 2015 elections, the same fate and feat may not repeat itself in 2023. It is a great race, sharp contentions, but it must all be peaceful. The election of the APC presidential candidate will actually kick-start the full voltage of politicking leading to the election of the president to run the affairs of Nigeria for the next four years come 2023. We must contest with decorum and maturity.